MI6’s Saviour‑Signal: Russia Could Take an Opa‑Pause, Ukraine Gets a Sweet Revenge Slot
At the Aspen Security Forum on July 21, Richard Moore, the chief of Britain’s SIS (MI6), warned that the Russian military is on the brink of burning itself out. He thinks a brief operational lull is inevitable, giving Kyiv the golden opportun‑beam to swing back.
What the Spy Whispers Reveal
- Manpower drain – Roughly 15,000 Russian troops lost since the invasion; Moore calls it “probably a conservative estimate.” Nicknames like “cannon fodder” now refer to the blue‑collar kids from Siberia, not the stylish cosmopolitan inhabitants of Moscow.
- Energy drama – Europe braces for a cold winter with potential gas shortages; any Russian supply curbs in the warmer months could leave the continent shivering.
- Ukraine’s power move – With new long‑range missiles like US HIMARS, Kyiv can target Russian positions and reclaim occupied ground in the coming weeks.
Moore’s central thesis: Russia is running out of “steam,” so the military will necessarily stop and the Russians’ll have to stretch themselves thin. That “pause” will let Ukraine “strike back” in ways that keep morale high and demonstrate that the fight is still winnable.
Why Morale Matters
“The Ukrainians need to prove they can hit back,” Moore said. “If they show it, their spirits stay high and the West sees they’re not just fighting a losing battle.” The message extends beyond Ukraine to the rest of Europe: this isn’t a Game‑of‑Thrones type of ‘I’ll crush you now’ drama; it’s a solvable conflict. The phrasing echoes the looming winter chill, a reminder that every border soldier, every factory, and every town may be heading into a tough season.
Potential Russian Health Check
Asked about Vladimir Putin’s condition, Moore shrugged: “No evidence he’s seriously ill.” A subtle nod that the Russian leader is still steering the war’s course.
Bottom line? If Russia pauses, Kyiv has a chance to launch its best counter‑offensive yet, leveraging modern weaponry, keeping the momentum alive, and battling a potential energy crisis on the continent. The clouds are gathering, but the air is still dry enough for someone to catch a breather and print a victory banner.
