Singapore’s Economy: Shrinking Growth and Rising Prices
New Numbers, New Concerns
MAS released the latest survey on Thursday (September 1). The median outlook from 21 economists shows a slight dip in growth and a hike in inflation for 2024.
Growth Forecast
- Median expectation: 3.5 % this year
- Previous survey (June): 3.8 %
Inflation Forecast
- Broad consumer prices: 5.7 % over 2022
- June’s estimate: 5.0 %
Why the Change?
Two things were happening around August:
- The government also cut growth forecasts.
- Worldwide central banks were tightening—raising rates to tame inflation.
Biggest Risk: Global Trade Slowdown
Nearly 75 % of respondents flagged a sluggish trade‑partner economy as the top downside risk.
Hope? China’s Recovery
About 61.5 % see a stronger-than‑expected rebound in China as the main upside driver. But recent weak data from China and Singapore’s own disappointing manufacturing numbers make that hope a bit shaky.
What’s Happening Inside Singapore?
July’s data showed the fastest consumer price rise in 13 years—kind of a red flag. The finance minister hinted that the peak might not hit until the fourth quarter.
Monetary Moves
- Singapore unexpectedly tightened policy twice this year, in January and July.
Profit and Property Outlook
- Most economists predict a decline in year‑on‑year corporate profits for the September quarter.
- However, many still expect property prices to rise and corporate bond spreads to stay flat.
All told, the new survey paints a picture of a Singapore that’s navigating a delicate balance between slowing global trade, rising consumer costs, and tighter monetary policy—all while keeping an eye on the market’s next move.
