Bitcoin Is Finally Saying “Bye‑Bye” to the Stock Market
After a long, tear‑filled, tantrum‑filled period, the crypto king has decided it’s time to break the rope that’s tethered it to the Nasdaq.
What’s the Math Behind the Split?
Bitcoin’s 30‑day correlation with the Nasdaq just dropped to 0.26—the lowest level since early January. That number tells us the two are moving in tiny sips of each other, not dancing in lock‑step like a rom‑com couple.
Until now, the correlation was gripping above 0.75 for most of the year and even reached near‑perfect harmony (0.96 in May and 0.93 in September). This is like seeing two lifestyles start to diverge after years of staying side‑by‑side.
Is Splitting Up a Good Thing?
Some folks in the crypto world already drink to this separation. “The tech market is peaking,” says Santiago Portela, CEO of FITCHIN, a Web3 gaming ecosystem. “Investors are hunting the next growth gold rush, and Bitcoin looks like the front‑row ticket.”
When Calm Meets a Crypto Comeback
Coinciding with a period of calm and consolidation, Bitcoin’s price sits near a one‑month high of about $20,500. It climbed over 5% last week, outpacing the Nasdaq’s modest 2% rise amid underwhelming quarterly results from tech giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon.
What It Means for Investors
- Bitcoin is no longer a “tech sidekick” and is standing on its own.
- The market might view this detachment as a sign that crypto is stepping into its own growth story.
- With volatility easing, some investors might find Bitcoin’s new independence a fresh opportunity.
Bottom line: Bitcoin’s getting a fresh lease on life—free from the weight of tech stocks and ready to blaze its own trail.
Hodlers holding out
The Crypto Winter is Chill, but HODLers Keep Shivering
A Market that Gave the Shrinkey Shudder
From a crown of nearly $3 trillion in November 2021 to a squat $984 billion today (CoinMarketCap.com).
Average daily volume dipped to $61.3 million (Oct 25), a severe haircut from earlier $700 million highs (CryptoCompare).
A solid-arity haul: the amount of Bitcoin stuck without a trade for three months or more hit an all‑time high, a revelation from Glassnode.
Long‑term holders – the famed “HODLers” – are piling up, proving they’re still in on the game despite the gloom.
HODLer Rites & Binance Bouquets
On Oct 26, a record 55,000 BTC were lifted from the biggest exchange (CryptoQuant).
Coins gone into wallets that echo the “I’ve got this for years” vibe.
Stéphane Ouellette (FRNT Financial) notes that the prior speculator‑heavy crowd, set in 2021, gave way to cult‑like HODLers who stand firm in any macro upheaval.
Looking Ahead: Future Fuels
The market’s fingers are on the podium for the upcoming Fed meeting, hoping to test the “risk‑asset / BTC correlation” theory.
If the theory breaks, the HODLers may still keep the beat.
“The holder base of BTC has changed drastically from being heavily weighted towards speculators, to the near cult‑like ‘HODLer’ community that would not sell their BTC in almost any macro circumstance,” Ouellette muses.
Their collective heartbeat? Strong enough to survive one more Fed tremor.
Next for fickle bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Is the Bear Market Finally Pinching The End?
Samuel Reid, the big‑shot CEO over at Geometric Energy, thinks the big wash‑outs on exchanges might mean some heavyweight buyers are already sniffing around the corner for the bear market’s exit.
But who can really tell if Bitcoin will stick around the next time, or if the price will tumble again (or even hug the tech sector like a long‑time roommate). In short, the outlook is as chaotic as ever.
What Experts Are Saying
- Alex Miller (CEO of Hiro Systems) points out that crypto is “moody” and still very much a macro‑driven play.
- He adds that once Bitcoin finds solid use cases—or starts proving its real-world utility—the market will become less tied to macro‑economic chatter.
In the meantime, the dance between market speculation and global economics keeps running the show. So, buckle up! The next Bitcoin twist could be the “big waltz” people’re all waiting for.
