Hun Sen’s “Selective Warm‑Fuzz” Threat Over EU Trade Deal
On Monday – Jan 14 – Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen turned the single‑handed EU walk‑away on Everything-but‑Arms (EBA) status into a political nail‑biter. He told the European Union that if they strip Cambodia of its duty‑free perks, they better be ready to “kill the opposition” because that’s what it’s effectively doing.
“Cut It or Not” – The Thundering Roar
During a grand opening of a brand‑new ring road around Phnom Penh, Hun Sen delivered a punch‑line that sent chills through Brussels: “If you want the opposition dead, just cut it.” He followed with a tempting offer, “If you want the opposition alive, don’t do it and come and hold talks together.” He was clearly inviting the EU to either snap the deal or seek a round‑table negotiation – a classic double‑whammy.
Why the EU’s EBA Attack?
The EBA scheme is a TT‑magic trick, where poorer countries get free trade on almost everything but arms. It can only be revoked if a country breaches human rights conventions—something the EU claims Cambodia is doing, judging by a crackdown on its opposition before last July’s elections. Those elections saw Hun’s party sweep all seats while suppressing rivals. The EU called the vote “not credible” and began a formal procedure to slash Cambodia’s EBA prestige.
Grand‑Premier’s Retaliation Playbook
Hun Sen, who’s been prime minister for 34 years and was just 66 at the time, also warned that Western governments who lobbied for cuts weren’t going to be forgiven. “People are prepared to flee, be prepared,” he warned, “I won’t forgive them.” That line is a playful jab at any potential ex‑citizens who might decide to chase greener pastures abroad.
Legacy of the CNRP Dismissal
Back in 2017, the Supreme Court dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and banned 118 members after accusing them of treason – supposedly conspiring with the United States to seize power. The party’s leader Kem Sokha was out of prison this September after a year behind bars, but remains under house arrest in Phnom Penh. Many senior members have fled the country, fearing arrest.
Even with the EU’s heavy hand (it accounted for roughly 40 % of Cambodia’s exports in 2016), the garment sector keeps about 700,000 people on its toes. The political dance between Brussels and Phnom Penh is now a high‑stakes negotiation: either keep the trade perks, preserve the opposition, or risk a chilling crackdown.
