Japan’s New Front‑Runner: Fumio Kishida Secures LDP Leadership
In a surprise that’s already set the wheels in motion for Japan’s next prime minister, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida clinched the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership title on Wednesday, Sept. 29. His win guarantees a spot in the top job within days, with an official parliamentary session slated for Oct. 4.
The Speech That Sets the Stage
When he took the podium, Kishida painted a clear picture: a renewed party, a united stance for the upcoming general election, and a steadfast fight against the lingering COVID‑19 crisis that’s been a drag on Japan’s economy.
- “The LDP leadership election is over. Let us all face the lower house and the upper house elections as one,” he said.
- “Our national crisis continues. We need to keep working hard on the coronavirus response with strong determination, and we need to compile tens of trillions of yen of stimulus package by the end of the year.”
Despite his modest popularity and a plain‑vanilla image, Kishida’s victory could stir a few bumps on the LDP’s road to the November 28 election.
Who He Beat and Who Dropped Out
Kishida outshined former defence and foreign minister Taro Kono, known for his outspoken, maverick persona, in a decisive second‑round run‑off. The two female candidates—Sanae Takaichi (60) and Seiko Noda (61)—tapped out after the first round, leaving the field wide open.
From Suga to Kishida
He steps into shoes left by the unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who chose not to seek re‑election after a brief, one‑year stint. Thanks to the LDP’s majority in the lower house, Kishida is practically destined to become premier.
Preliminary plans have him forming a fresh cabinet and reshuffling the LDP executive early in October. Most likely, the lower chamber will be dissolved in mid‑October, setting the general election on either Nov. 7 or Nov. 14.
Senior Scholars Weigh In
“A month of media overload in the run‑up to the election may rain on the LDP’s parade, but the underwhelming results could dampen any celebratory high‑five,” mused Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
He added, “The opposition will be relieved that they won’t have to go head‑to‑head against the TV darling, Kono.”
With a steering wheel firmly in his hands and the LDP’s full backing, Kishida’s rallying cry signals a new chapter for Japan’s political landscape—and a fresh sprint towards the October‑to‑November electoral showdown.
Establishment win
Kishida’s win: What’s next for Japan?
Even though Shinzo Kishida just secured the premiership, his victory isn’t expected to flip the entire policy landscape overnight. Japan is still wrestling with an assertive China and a post‑pandemic economy that’s been in the slump for too long.
Security, economic ties, and a human‑rights focus
Kishida is clear on a few key points:
- Band together with the U.S. and the Quad (Australia, India, U.S., and Japan) to toughen up Japan’s defence.
- Keep the economic bridge to China strong, but don’t ignore the human‑rights reckoning.
- Boost the coast guard and push a resolution that denounces China’s treatment of Uyghurs.
- Appoint a dedicated aide to keep an eye on the human‑rights situation in the region.
“Taiwan is the biggest question for me,” Kishida told reporters, underlining the salience of Taiwan in Japan’s foreign‑policy calculus.
Fiscal discipline meets stimulus
While fiscal consolidation is a cornerstone of Kishida’s agenda, he’s had a moment of change when dealing with the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Earlier, he had critiqued the BOJ’s super‑loose stance. Now, faced with a still‑strained economy, he backs the BOJ’s heavy stimulus and has announced a spending package exceeding 30 trillion yen (~S$36 billion). He’s also signalled that Japan probably won’t lift the consumption tax beyond 10 % for a decade.
Fairer wealth distribution
Totaling the big picture, Kishida wants to shift the focus from corporate perks to direct wealth for households — a brief pivot from Abe’s “Abenomics” that relied on a trickle‑down effect. “A win for the establishment,” says Jesper Koll of Monex Group, noting that Kishida’s approach is more about stability than radical change.
Why this matters
Kishida’s great‑deal policy mix combines reassurance for allies, prudence in fiscal matters, and a nod to public concerns over inequality and human rights. He’ll need to balance a number of pushing forces, but the foundations are in place.
