Is Singapore’s $1M HDB Resale Market Vulnerable to New Cooling Measures?

Why HDB Resale Flats Are Suddenly Feeling Like Luxury Burj Khalifa

The Numbers That Make Your Wallet Wobble

What Does This Mean for the Everyday Singaporean?

Honestly, it feels a bit like watching your neighbor’s cat climb the tallest tree while your own budget stays glued to the base floor. The headlines scream: “HDB resale is now a luxury market!” And if you’re thinking, “Is that fair?”, you’re not alone.

Why Are Prices Shooting Up?

Bottom Line

So next time you stroll past a HDB building that looks like a personality‑packed Airbnb, remember: the market’s switching gears, and your ‘buy‑in’ strategy might need some fine‑tuning.

PLH model and 85 per cent LTV: Measures to moderate the HDB resale market

Keeping the House Hunt Cool

Early Sunday Drive: The PLH Model

• Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) – launched in late October – adds a bunch of extra “no‑buy‑and‑flip” rules.
• 10‑Year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) – you have to live there for a decade before selling.
• $14,000 Income Ceiling – resale buyers must earn no more than this to qualify.

Bottom line: If you’re looking to flip a property for a quick profit, PLH is about to give you a gentle nudge (or a polite head‑shake).

December’s Double Trouble

When December rolled around, a second pack of cooling tools was signed into law. Here’s the low‑down:

• Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD)
  • Singaporeans: 17 % on the second home, 25 % on the third and beyond.
  • PRs: 25 % for the second, 30 % for the third and beyond.
  • Foreigners: a solid 30 % on every purchase.
• Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) – tightened to 55 %.
• Loan‑to‑Value (LTV) Ratio – busted from 90 % down to 85 % for HDB loans.

The ABSD hikes are a no‑op for HDB buyers (they can only own one flat), but the LTV cut forces them to put more cash down!

What does it mean for HDB Buyers?

Because the government lowered the LTV from 90 % to 85 %, the down‑payment swells by 5 %. In plain English: if your HDB loan used to let you borrow 90 % of the flat’s price, now you’re choking down 15 % of that lump sum.

In practice:

• It’s a bigger first step.
• It keeps the market from being flooded with cash‑rich investors.
• It gives everyday folks a slight head‑start.

Did the Rules Really Reduce the Million‑Dollar Rush?

Let’s be honest—data trumps rumours. When cool‑down measures are announced, the biggest indicator to watch is the volume of million‑dollar transactions. If the numbers dip after each policy roll‑out, we might say the government’s plan is doing its work. A steady or even boosted figure, however, hints that investors just found a way around the restrictions (or that the market’s fundamentals are simply too strong to freeze).

In short:

• Track the number of 1 M+ deals before and after each measure.
• Look for patterns of dip‑and‑bounce.
• Ask: “Did I see fewer million‑dollar buyers after this policy got kicked in?”

Because owning a million‑dollar flat is a high‑stakes game, any tug‑of‑war between the government’s levers and the market’s appetite is crucial for forecasters, sellers, and the next generation of queens and kings of the allotment block.

Wrap‑up

So, while the PLH model pins down the sorting order for resale buyers, and December’s tighter ABSD, TDSR, and LTV punch hard at investors’ wallets, the real test remains: will these measures actually tame the frenzy of million‑dollar transactions? Only the numbers – and a dash of analysis – will compel the final verdict. Stay tuned, stay savvy, and keep the house hunt at a chill pace!

Have past cooling measures affected the number of million-dollar flats sold?

First Million‑Dollar Flat Hits the Market: A Milestone That Sparked a Cooling Crusade

July 2012 saw a record-breaking moment for local property buyers: a 150‑sqm executive apartment on Mei Ling Street, Queenstown, closed for ₾1 million. That deal wasn’t just a headline‑grabbing sale—it set the stage for a series of cooling measures that followed.

Why That Sale Matters

• It marked the first time a single flat crossed the million‑price threshold in a relatively tight housing market.
• It sent a clear signal to regulators: prices were climbing too fast and needed a pause.
• From that point on, every new policy was aimed at keeping growth steady and affordable.

Cooling Measures (Post‑July 2012)

• Higher mortgage interest rates for high‑value loans to curb speculation.
• Implementation of a property tax on luxury units to discourage over‑investment.
• Severe restrictions on the amount of cash deposit required for premium properties.
• Launch of a cooling fund to help buyers purchase mid‑priced homes without going over the lot.
• Periodic review of housing supply plans to avoid shortages that spur price spikes.

Bottom Line

That first million‑dollar sale was not just a victory for savvy buyers—it was a wake‑up call that sparked a chain of wrapped‑up policies. Since July 2012, the city has been balancing the scales, ensuring that any exuberance in the market is quickly tamed by well‑timed cooling measures. The story continues, but that milestone remains a reminder of how one sale can change the trajectory of an entire housing market.

October 2012

October 2012: When the Market Got a Sudden Cool‑Down

That record‑breaking sale put the housing market into overdrive, and the next month in 2012, the government finally decided to put on some brakes.

Mortgage Rules That Took the Edge Off

• Maximum Tenure Cut to 35 Years—You now face an 8‑to‑14‑year-old loan if you are 25 and younger, or a 30‑year term if you’re 37, just to keep things interesting.
• Loan‑to‑Value (LTV) Adjustments—If your mortgage spills over 30 years or pushes past a retiree’s age (65+), you’ll need to bring more equity to the table:
  • First loan: LTV drops from 80% to 60%.
  • Subsequent loans: LTV slides further down from 60% to just 40%.

What That Looks Like for Home Buyers

Imagine you’re about to skyrocket a mortgage to the future—these rules dig in, telling you to keep your debts a modest 35‑year stretch and to show the bank you’re serious with more of your home’s value.

Quick Side Note: A Second Million‑Dollar Flat Hits the Tab

Simultaneously, the market had already kicked off a second high‑price flat. While cooling efforts spun out, the second million‑dollar transaction still struck the headlines, proving the frenzy kept its heat even as one step back was taken.

January 2013

2013 Property‑Market Take‑Back: The Hot‑Button Regulations

A Quick Recap of the New “Cooling” Rules

The Impact—Real Estate Drama in a Flash

Between January and June 2013, only two flats hit the million‑dollar mark—one in April, the other in May.Bold Point: The market seemed to hit a sleep mode even while the officials were busy tightening the screws.

Why It Matters

Takeaway

The 2013 take‑back shows that even a handful of regulatory updates can leave a huge impact on retail investor appetite, nudging the market toward calmer waters.

June 2013

Ever Heard About the TDSR? Let’s Break It Down.

After half a year of tweaking mortgage rules, the folks at the financial regulator dropped the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) onto the scene. Think of it as a strict bouncer that says, “No, you can’t spend more than 60% of your monthly income on that house loan!”

Why This Matters for Your Wallet

• 60% Rule: Your monthly repayment must stay within just over half of what you earn.
• Peace of Mind: No more draining your paycheck and leaving you with a barely‑sustaining cash cushion.
• Fairness Boost: It levels the playing field for everyone, making sure no one is buried under an avalanche of debt.

Bottom Line

Thanks to the TDSR, you can finally keep the debt out of your paycheck in a comfortable, “I’ve got this” zone.

August 2013

Cooling Down the Home Boom: What Changed in 2013

In just two short months, Singapore’s housing market got a new facelift with a fresh batch of cooling measures, designed to keep buyers from splurging too fast.

Key Rules that Hit the Market

• PR Households Pause Their Property Shopping
  Those who just got their Permanent Residency have to wait a cool three years before they can snap up a resale HDB flat. Think of it as a “newbie nap” for the housing market.
• Loan Tenure Got Shorter
  • HDB loans: now capped at 25 years instead of the old 30.
  • Bank-backed HDB purchases see the limit cut from 35 to 30 years.

  Longer loans? You’re going to have to look closer at that down‑payment split.

• Tighter LTV for Longer Borrowing
  If you’re planning a loan that stretches beyond 25 years, lenders are tightening the Loan‑to‑Value (LTV) ratios. Basically, you’ll need more of your own cash up front.
• MSR Reduced
  The Mortgage Servicing Ratio dropped from 35% to 30%. It’s a steady squeeze on how much you can borrow compared to your income.

What Happens After the Rules? Market Results

Fast forward to November 2013, and the market was so restrained that only one luxury flat made the cut for a price over a million dollars.

Takeaway

With stricter loan terms and a chill on fresh buyers, the housing market’s fireworks were dialed down. If you’re looking to hop on the Singapore property train, it’s a good time to plan your moves carefully—and, maybe, enjoy a coffee while you wait.

December 2013

Executive Condominiums: The Cool‑Down & Minty Transactions

What’s the deal with the cooling measures?

• Cancellation fees – Slashed from a hefty 20 % to a friendly 5 %. A much lighter pinch for those who’ll change their minds mid‑purchase.
• Resale levy – A new fee for second‑timer buyers stepping into an EC. Think of it as a small tax to keep the market fluid.
• MSR (Maintenance Service Repayment) – At a 30 % rate, this applies to ECs just as well as regular flats, reminding owners that upkeep costs are real.

After the 2014 cool‑down, there was a quiet lull until March 2017, when no fresh cooling policies popped up. The market stayed calm for a while.

Million‑Dollar Deals: A Rare Event

• From 2012 to 2014, buying a flat for a million dollars was rarer than finding a unicorn. Most years saw only two or three such deals.
• Take 2014 as an example: only two million‑dollar transactions happened — one in October and the other in December. Seriously, you’d think a miracle had taken place!

In short: The EC cooling measures eased some financial burdens while still keeping the market in check. Meanwhile, the high‑price market remained as elusive as a blue‑moon‑sighting, with very few million‑dollar transactions popping up in those early years.

How the Million‑Dollar Flat Market Skated Into 2015

Picture this: a sleek bar chart where each bar represents a month. If you hover over any of those bars, you’ll instantly see how many transactions racked up during that time.

What the Numbers Really Tell Us

• Pre‑2015 – The market was still chilling. Most months saw fewer than a million dollars in flat sales.
• 2015 & After – Things got interesting. From that year onward, the charts started to climb.

In 2015, for the first time, several months broke the million‑dollar mark. The spike wasn’t a fleeting blip; it became a trend that kept growing in the following years.

Why It Matters

• It signals a booming demand in the market.
• Investors noticed and started riding the wave.
• You’ll see the graph go from a calm lake to a roaring river.

Bottom line: if you want to understand where the action started, look back at 2015, because that’s when the million-dollar party began.

Hold on, We’ve Been Trading Millions Every Month!

Okay, folks, let’s take a quick breather and crunch the numbers. From May 2016 up till now, every single month has seen at least one transaction that hit the $1 million mark. That isn’t a typo, no—our ledger is as solid as a rock‑solid, long‑term investment.

Why This Is a Big Deal

• Consistency: 12 months a year—it’s like a mountain that never dents into a valley.
• Scale: A million‑dollar deal isn’t exactly a spring chicken. It’s more like a house‑sized chicken farm.
• Stability: No sudden dips or unpredictable spikes—just steady growth.

The Picture Behind the Numbers

Picture this: the same friendly neighborhood applause without the crazy alarms and red‑pointed alarms on the dashboard.

• Every month, the market moves like a well‑tuned orchestra.
• The numbers are padding the balance sheet, and that’s plenty of fuel for future deals.
• We’re witnessing a “no‑surprises” zone, which is gold for investors.

What It Means for You

Whether you’re a seasoned trader, an aspiring investor, or just a curious hobbyist with a penchant for numbers, this trend says:

• We’ve got a strong supply of high‑value deals.
• The market is in a steady dancing groove, with no sudden out-of-step moves.
• It’s a safe playground for those looking to make a big, confident leap.

Bottom Line: It’s a Plate Full of Numbers—Just Don’t Miss It!

There you have it—our data chart is giving us a wow‑factor with all of the $1 million entries lined up from May 2016 to today. Grab the opportunity, see the consistency, and let’s keep those big numbers coming—side by side, month after month.

March 2017

Triple‑Year Touch‑Down in Housing Policy

After a quiet three‑year gap, the government rolled out a fresh set of cooling tools in June 2018. Here’s the low‑down on what changed:

Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) – Cut and Contextualized

• New rule: The SSD – that extra fee buyers pay when they swap homes – was slashed across every tier.
• Time‑bound: It applies only to sales completed within the first three years of ownership, so sellers get a little breathing room.

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Loans – No TDSR Drag

• Rookie perk: No Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) check if you’re pulling down equity from a mortgage and the loan’s 9‑1 / LTV stays at 50% or less.
• Pro‑buyer note: This eases the cost of rehypothecated funds for folks looking to boost cash flow.

Million‑Doll‑Worth Trades – The Numbers Speak

Back in the summer of ’18, the market hit some red‑hot stats. A single month saw more than 25 million‑dollar flat flips, a peak that dwarfed the average calendar of under four deals in the two years before (aside from that August 2016 spike). Then the next month, the tally fell to just two. It’s a roller‑coaster that tells the story of a housing market in flux.

Long‑Term Trend (2017‑2018)

• March ’17: 6 million‑dollar deals.
• May ’17: Up to 9 deals.
• July ’17: 9 again.
• March ’18: 8 deals.
• June ’18: That’s where the record is struck—11 deals, smashing the previous mania, and marking the first time that month’s tally hit double digits.

Why It Matters

These moves are a fail‑safe against market overheats. Lower stamp duty and slotted TDSR checks give sellers and borrowers a little cushion—think of it as a quick breather before pushing forward.

Through the eye of a market watchdog, every dip and spike signals investor sentiment. The recent cool‑down measures were aimed at making the housing market a bit less “sticky” and more “buoyant.” While the numbers shoot up and down, the underlying goal remains: to keep the housing scene healthy and sustainable, without letting speculation out of control.

July 2018

Singapore Housing Market: A Cooling Curve & That Tiny Dip of 2020

Ever seen a market try to chill? Singapore’s housing sector is no joke—there’s been a series of cooling pulses aimed at keeping the prices from bouncing off the roof.

Cooling Measures (The “Last Hit” before 2021)

• ABSD for second‑home buyers – bumped up by 5 %
• ABSD for foreigners – also 5 % higher
• LTV limits – trimmed from 80 % to 75 % for bank loans

These are the final adjustments before a December 2021 wave, meant to tighten the screws on the market.

High‑End Flat Activity – A Quick Timeline

Let’s break it down by month, because you’ll want to know where the numbers sprinted and stuttered.

• July 2018 – 6 million‑dollar flats hit the market.
• August 2018 – a jump to 9 high‑end deals.
• September 2018 to September 2019 – the numbers trended between 4 and 9 flat transactions per month.
• October 2019 – a noticeable drop (typical of a year‑end lull).
• December 2019 – another dip, again because the end of the year usually slows down activity.
• April 2020 – just 1–2 mega‑price flats, thanks to the Circuit Breaker brakes coming into play.

Why These Drops? The Simple Story

When a policy pulls the throttle or the market hits a low‑traffic season, the high‑price segment takes a hit. Think of it like a busy highway that suddenly gets a speed bump—not everyone keeps moving at the same pace.

In short: the cooling measures were designed to squeeze the high end, and the yearly slowdown plus the Circuit Breaker simply didn’t offer the buyers the wiggle room they hoped for.

So, if you ever wondered how Singapore’s luxury housing market felt that April‑2020, you’ll know: it was a brief pause, not a full stop.

OMG, the Pandemic Roll‑Rollback Stories!

Why 10‑plus Millions Matter

Picture this: in March 2020, right when the world tuned into “COVID‑19 mania,” the number of transactions hitting the big million mark jump‑started around 10. That’s double‑digit excitement—and it felt like a high‑score spurt in the middle of a do‑you‑even‑make‑coffee‑out‑of‑doors style game.

Once the Circuit Breaker fizzled out in June, those mega‑deals kept climbing. Every month after that, markets were spitting out at least 10 million‑dollar straight‑away stuff. The trend felt more like a smooth slide on a roller coaster than a nervous tent‑cave.

Take the big hits: a surprising 20 on a chilly October 2020, and a galaxy‑wide pop‑pushed 30 in December 2021—the same month the latest cooling cue dropped. It was like watching a fireworks show in the sky of a very hot economic summer.

Quick‑Look Numbers

• March 2020 – 10+
• June 2020 – constant rise to 10+ per month
• October 2020 – 20+
• December 2021 – 30+

So, there you have it: a thrilling spike, a steady climb, and remarkable peaks—all woven into the story of how markets responded to the pandemic’s roller‑coaster style. And yep, the numbers didn’t just stay flat—they danced across the million‑mark line!

What can we learn from the past data?

Million-Dollar Flat Transactions: A Wild Ride of Market Tango

Between 2012 and 2014, selling a flat for a cool million was like spotting a unicorn—rare and magical. Fast forward to after March 2017, when governments rolled out cooling measures to put a lid on the market frenzy, and the scene changed a bit. Every month after that saw at least one mega‑priced lease, so it makes sense to focus on this period to see how those measures rattled things.

The Ripple Effect

When the cooling policy hits, the numbers don’t just stay steady— they dip. Here are the moments that felt the chill:

• April 2017 – The first hint of a slowdown.
• July 2018 – A gentle drop that reminded sellers of a lukewarm cup.
• January 2022 – The most recent chill, with 27 top‑grade flats sold versus 36 a few months prior.

That January drop? It’s a 25‑percent plunge from the 36 transactions recorded in December 2021 right after the new measures were announced.

Why the Numbers Matter

Cooling measures are meant to avoid price bubbles—and seeing a tangible drop in million‑dollar transactions gives us a snapshot of whether those policies are doing their job.

In short: the market got a bit more measured thanks to those policies, and the largest sales got a power‑down, proving that rate limits and other tricks do work— or at least hint at the right direction.

Bottom Line

Even though huge price tags didn’t vanish entirely, the licensing of cooling measures has indeed been pulling the rug out from under the fast‑sale treadmill. The market’s footing has the slow‑pace feel of a careful sashay toward a more balanced future.

Why HDB Loan Buyers are Chilling Out this Market

Picture this: last month’s dip in flat sales probably spilled from a smaller loan‑to‑value ratio on HDB mortgages. That’s when buyers had to jack up their cash down payment. Less borrowing = less buying.

Timing Matters

And let’s not forget the holiday cycle. People tend to stay away from house‑shopping right before the Lunar New Year. No one wants to start an auspicious year with a property muddle—it’s all about luck and a little feng shui.

Long‑Term vs. Short‑Term Sweep

After the 2017 and 2018 cooling measures, the market has been on a steady climb. But those policies—like the $1 million flat cap—also show no real bite at the million‑dollar range. The bigger houses slip through the cracks.

The Cool Strategy Sudden‑Feeling

Turns out cooling plans often miss the main current of HDB buyers and sellers. For instance, the SSD (Sell‑to‑Sell Discount) is a no‑go for those stuck under the five‑year mortgage‑own‑plan (MOP). Why? They can’t even sell before the lock‑in period ends.

And remember, HDB residents can’t own more than one property in the same area. So the Increase in Additional Buyers‑Stability Tax (ABSD) doesn’t hit them dead‑on. They’re already clipped for a single home.