Saudi Succession Drama: Who’s Going to Take the Crown?
It’s Not a Straight‑Line Story
In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, passing the throne isn’t as simple as “dad’s job dad’s son’s job.” The Al Saud family follows tribal customs that let clan heads pick who seems fit to lead. That means politics and family feuds play a big role.
Spotlight on Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)
- MBS’s Rise: When he moved from interior minister to crown prince in 2017, he won fans by flexing sweeping reforms—women driving, cinemas opening, and a new generation of enlightenment.
- Yet the crown prince also cracked down hard on dissent: purged senior royals, toppled power‑houses, and racked up a pricey war in Yemen.
- These bold moves have earned him allies and enemies—both inside and outside the Saudi realm.
Prince Ahmed: The Possible Next King?
Now, some princes are whispering about a new heir. Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, 76, could become king once King Salman (the 82‑year‑old father) passes. Ahmed is salacious: a former interior minister for 40 years, the only surviving full brother of King Salman, and a name that can command the family, security forces, and a few Western supporters.
He returned to Riyadh late last year after a few months abroad, and during a diplomatic visit, he apparently criticized the current leadership and tweet‑lined with protesters outside a London flat chanting for the dynasty’s downfall. Whether he’s a hardbargainer or a gentle philosopher, the rumors say he has a strong net of supporters.
Alliances and Worries in the United States
- US Suspects: CIA analysts say MBS ordered the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. The United States, a key ally, is wary of this move.
- The White House’s stance? It’s not rushing to turn away from MBS, even though lawmakers are raising legislative pressure to punish the crown prince.
- Trump’s commentary highlighted the “premature” nature of the CIA article, but promised a full report any Tuesday.
- American officials have also flagged MBS’s push for Russian weaponry, specifically S‑400 surface‑to‑air missile systems—a “new weapon ride” that could upset the US‑Saudi security balance.
The Allegiance Council: The Ultimate Decider?
When King Salman’s reign ends, the titular Allegiance Council – 34 members from across family lines – is supposed to approve the queen’s successor. Even though MBS already walked in as crown prince, he still needs the Council’s nod to ascend to the throne. Different sources say the council was “comfortably accepting” of MBS’s options only when he was crown prince, not king.
Why the Family is Pensive
Many senior Saudis consider that shifting the succession would not trigger a security backlash because the royal’s security apparatus believes in the “broader family.” In other words, they’ve got some faith that the Council’s decision will hold finger points on the entire house. The family feels MBS’s heavy-handedness is tearing down institutional pillars: old tribal ties, clerics, merchant families. These frayed ties have destabilizing vibes.
Final Thoughts: Snap Decisions or A Long Game?
With the Kingdom rumbling from Khashoggi to the New York Project Blackrock, big decisions are a gamble. Will the Prince Ahmed swoop in, believing he can preserve reforms and keep the peace? Or will MBS hold onto power like a stubborn brass bull, balancing drama with diplomacy? Nobody knows, but sure “rise to the throne” is not a travel‑check list.
Stay tuned, because in the Saudi story, the next chapter could still be a page-turner—or a break‑in‑the‑back‑story even.
