Israel’s Vaccine vs. the South African COVID Variant: What the Numbers Say
In a recent real‑world study out of Tel Aviv University and Israel’s biggest health network, Clalit, researchers took a close look at how the B.1.351 (South African) variant stacks up against the Pfizer/BioNTech jab. The findings hint that the vaccine may be a little less stingy against that pesky strain—though the impact overall remains minimal.
How the Study Was Done
- MATCHED COHORTS: Roughly 400 people who tested positive for COVID‑19 two weeks or more after getting one or two vaccine doses were compared to 400 unvaccinated counterparts, with age and gender nudged into line.
- VARIANT RATIO: B.1.351 represented about 1 % of all COVID cases in the study sample—truly a tiny minority.
- BREAKTHROUGH DIFFERENCE: Among those fully shot (two doses), the variant’s prevalence jumped to 5.4 %, while only 0.7 % of the unvaccinated group carried it. That’s an eight‑fold difference.
What This Means
Adi Stern, a key researcher, called it “a disproportionately higher rate of the South African variant among people vaccinated with a second dose.” In plain terms: the vaccine can still be broken through, but only in a handful of cases.
The researchers cautioned that the sample of B.1.351 infections is tiny—almost a handful of individuals—because the strain is hardly circulating in Israel. As a result, they’re not claiming the vaccine is ‘wrong’ in general, just that the protection isn’t absolute against this variant.
Other Perspectives
- Pfizer/BioNTech’s Take:
- They noted their vaccine cuts infection risk by roughly 91 % based on recent trial data.
- In South Africa, out of 800 trial volunteers, all nine breakthrough cases happened in the placebo group – six of those involved the B.1.351 variant.
- Before the World:
Previous studies had already shown the B.1.351 variant is tougher for the vaccine to shut down than other variants, yet it still offers solid defense.
Why the Low Prevalence is Good News
Even if B.1.351 manages a little “vaccine loophole,” it hasn’t taken the lead. Stern pointed out, “Even if the South African variant does break through the vaccine’s protection, it has not spread widely through the population.” Possibly because the dominant UK‑origin strain (B.1.1.7) is hogging the spotlight, acting like a gatekeeper against the newcomer.
What Billions Learnt
- About 53 % of Israel’s 9.3 million people have received two doses. That’s a decent chunk of the populace.
- With hospitals, severe cases and new infections dropping, the country is bouncing back – the economy is easing up.
- Still, roughly a third of Israelis are under 16, and we’re waiting to see when they’ll get vaccinated.
Bottom line: the B.1.351 variant can sneak past the vaccine “safety net” a bit, but its presence is alarmingly sparse. Meanwhile, the UK‑derived strain continues to dominate, keeping the viral highway clear for now. The vaccination drive stays strong, and the world can breathe a little easier.
