When Sri Lanka’s Tamil Votes Become the Tipping Point
The island kingdom of Sri Lanka has landed itself on a political drama the size of a soap‑opera. After President Maithripala Sirisena let the former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe walk off the throne in October, the spotlight now falls on Mahinda Rajapaksa, the ex‑president whose name still echoes faintly in the ears of the Tamil people. But as the two men battle for parliamentary dominance, a small voice‑tuple of ethnic Tamils is being heard louder every day.
Who’s Who in the Power‑Play?
- Ranil Wickremesinghe – 104 seats in Parliament, the “big‑footed” reformer that has lately been accused of dragging his feet.
- Mahinda Rajapaksa – 99 seats, the former wartime commander who unleashed the military on Tamil Tigers, their supporters, and civilians a decade ago.
- Besides them, the TNA (Tamil National Alliance) – a 16‑seat bloc that might decide who takes the reins.
The “Infernal Dilemma” of the Tamils
According to Dharmalingam Sithadthan, a TNA MP, the situation can be summed up in one line: “We have to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea.” A witty analogy that, for many, rings true. Both Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa are Sinhalese, so Tamils face a hard choice. Yet both options come with hidden dangers.
Why Rajapaksa Raises Red Flags
Rajapaksa’s return would be a nightmare for those living in the
north and east of Sri Lanka.
The 37‑year civil war had claimed more than 100,000 lives,
40,000 of which were Tamil civilians murdered in a brutal 2009 offensive.
The memory of living under constant surveillance and needing military permission just to invite a guest over still haunts many.
Reconciliation: The Unfinished Business of Wickremesinghe
Wickremesinghe promised accountability and political reform when he and Sirisena came to power in 2015. He has yet to prosecute wartime war criminals and has reportedly asked for a flat‑iron solution to Tamil demands for land and law‑and‑order control. In April, he even dismissively said there would be no federal state – a statement that ticked off the Tamil community.
Pressures, Perils, and Political Kingdom‑Making
When TNA MPs say they are “king‑makers” they’re also saying they might become the tribe’s worst nightmare. At one point, Mr. Sithadthan warned that if they back one side, the other “will target us at some time when they return to power.” The stakes are real: a misstep could lead to reprisals that echo long after the elections are done.
Personal Stories Amid the Politics
Praveena Raviraj’s father, a parliamentarian, was gunned down in 2006. Now she holds a seven‑year multiple‑entry visa for Canada, yet she feels uneasy about the political ghosts that may follow her back home. Her uncle, Ahilan Kadirgamar from Jaffna, adds that the fear is palpable: “Under Rajapaksa, people always felt they were being watched.”
Conclusion: A Community Between the Scales
The TNA votes are king‑maker material – but the Tamil community’s choice is less about politics and more about survival. They have a minority voice that won’t be heard without back‑stops or concessions they know will never come. Grieving, wait‑and‑see style is the gamble most Tamil voters are taking, hoping that the right side might, just maybe, avoid turning the country back into a battlefield.
