China Eyes Ukraine’s Playbook for a New “Hybrid” Approach vs. Taiwan
Yesterday’s hearing at the Taiwanese Parliament saw a calm‑but‑firm warning from the National Security Bureau: China is picking up tactics from the Ukraine war to stage what it calls “hybrid warfare” against the island. Think drones, cyber moves, and a dash of psychological pressure.
What “Hybrid Warfare” Means for the Taiwan Strait
- After the big August drills sparked by Nancy Pelosi’s trip, China has been sending more drones over Taiwan’s air‑defence identification zone (ADIZ). It’s a subtle howling “sus” that forces the Taiwanese air force to scramble without a direct battle.
- The drive is all about wearing out Taiwan’s defenses through repeated “gray‑zone” actions—sort of like a game of chess where you never actually move the pieces across the board.
- Chinese social media is also flooding with videos that paint their drone footage as evidence of Taiwan’s “lessons” for the world, calling it a “cognitive warfare” push.
Chasing Lessons from Ukraine
Chen Ming‑Tong, the director‑general of the National Security Bureau, told lawmakers that the military has been borrowing from the Russia‑Ukraine conflict to sharpen its counter‑attacks and training. He added that these lessons could inform future actions when China finally decides to move from rhetoric to force.
Taiwan’s “Shield‑Up” Plan
- The navy plans to add a new generation of destroyers. Chiang Cheng‑kuo mentioned that the current fleet of 26 warships is aging, with an average age of 20‑30 years.
- He also hinted at a yet‑to‑be‑decided tonnage for the next ships, assuring the parliament that the island’s shipyard is ready to roll.
US Support – A Word of Comfort
Chen highlighted that when China shows its cardio-attack in Ukraine, we can expect a strong U.S. and ally response for Taiwan. The goal, he said, is to prevent that “Ukraine style” from repeating across the water‑divide.
Why the Buzz?
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office remains silent over the comments, but Beijing continues to brand Taiwan’s “pro‑independence” activities as foreign collusion. Meanwhile, Taiwan keeps its eyes on the horizon, stacking up defenses and learning from the latest global theatre.
Time will show how effective this “hybrid” recipe is, but for now, Taiwan’s folks are on patrol, keeping everyone on their toes—and their drones, in particular.
