Taipei’s War‑Risk Low, But Watch Out for the Unexpected
In a recent speech to lawmakers, Taiwan’s top security official declared the chances of a full‑on clash with China next year are “very low,” even as tensions zip up like a roller coaster between the flagship silver island and its mainland neighbor.
What the Official Truly Means
Chen Ming‑tong, director‑general of the National Security Bureau, addressed the parliamentary defence committee at a calm yet cautious tone.
- “In the next calendar year, the odds of war are pretty slim.”
- “However, there are always ‘contingent events’ that could flip the script.”
Chen’s reassurance came after President Tsai Ing‑wen reaffirmed that Taiwan would stand its ground, yet still hopes for a calm dialogue with Beijing.
How Long are the Threats Expected to Recede?
Chen said that for the next one, two, or even three years—within Tsai’s current term—“no major problems are expected.” But he reminded lawmakers that surprise factors, like the COVID‑19 pandemic, can reshuffle the game board.
“Nobody could have foreseen that pandemic would shift so many facets of society,” Chen noted.
China’s Recent Moves and Taiwan’s Response
This month, China launched a five‑day streak of “massive” air force incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). While the aircraft stayed outside Taiwan’s territorial airspace, heading toward the southwestern corner of the zone, Taiwan’s patrols stayed on high alert, giving the island more reaction time.
- China claimed the flights were “just” a safeguard for peace and stability.
- They blamed Taiwan’s alleged “collusion” with foreign powers—hinting at the US.
Defence Minister Chiu Kuo‑cheng, meanwhile, emphasised that Taiwan will not start a war, but will “meet the enemy full on.” He further acknowledged that tensions now rank as the most serious in over 40 years of his military career and warned that China could mount a full‑scale invasion by 2025.
The Core Issue
China views Taiwan as a “renegade province” awaiting reunification by force if necessary. Taiwan counters, stating it will defend its freedoms and democracy, leaving the onus on China to address the escalating tensions.
As the stakes rise, both sides aim to keep the lights on—Taiwan with the invisible shield of its ADIZ patrols, China with a roster of aircraft ready for theatrics. For now, the odds of war remain low, but the drama continues to simmer.
