Thailand’s Political Brawl: Junta vs. Thaksin’s Red‑Shirt Army
The Countdown to 2019
Bangkok’s streets are buzzing as the military rulers and the red‑shirt camp—led by ex‑prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra—battle for control before the long‑overdue general election in 2019. The junta promises a ballot as early as February, aiming to hit the “democracy” sweet spot. But almost everyone suspects it’s more about keeping the throne locked shut.
Who’s Who in the Skirmish
- Junta’s Playbook – 2006 & 2014 coups, royalist ties, and a contractual 200‑member committee drafting the new constitution.
- Red‑Shirt Power – Thaksin’s Puea Thai Party, a loyal following that’s won every election since 2001.
- Off‑Grid Ops – Puea Thai’s attempt to stay alive while riding from exile, running hot under the junta’s radar.
Junta’s Crackdown
Last month, the military ordered the Election Commission to dig into whether Thaksin still runs the Puea Thai Party from abroad. If the probe finds straw, the party could be struck off the books—faster than a Thai espresso.
Watana Muangsook, a veteran Puea Thai activist, told Reuters:
“They fear us. The only way to beat us is to play outside the rules. If we play fair, they’ll just lose.”
Other Legal Games
Thaksin’s clan is under fire on multiple fronts:
- Panthongtae Shinawatra (his 38‑year‑old son) faces a 2004 money‑laundering indictment.
- Yingluck Shinawatra (his sister, former PM) fled to Britain after a politically motivated negligence trial—now cells searching for her extradition.
- Eight Puea Thai execs face charges for alleged breaches of the junta’s ban on gatherings larger than five people.
- Thousand “Thaksin‑Yingluck” calendars were seized and banned from distribution in Northeast Thailand.
Did Thaksin’s Say‑It? Cause a Storm
In a rare TV interview, Thaksin predicted that pro‑democracy parties could snag roughly 300 of the 500 seats in the lower house next year. That wild forecast fired the junta to launch a formal probe into his links to the party.
Meanwhile, Puea Thai denies that Thaksin is still steering the ship, claiming they’re just following the law. To shield against dissolution, they’ve set up three backup parties—Puea Tham, Puea Chart, and Thai Raksa Chart—each led by former Puea Thai members.
Why the Junta’s Attacks’re a Double‑Edged Sword
Experts warn that dissolving Puea Thai may not rub the dust off the grainy support base. Instead, the loyalists could just hop onto the new proxy parties, giving the military a dignified “brick‑wall” face.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director at the Institute of Security and International Studies, notes:
“The problem isn’t the party’s flag—it’s its durable supporters. If the party folds, those people will simply shift to the next PSAs.”
And let’s not forget, these folks still champion a subsidized rice scheme and free health care—palms that resonate especially in the rural north and Northeast. Those policies could turn the tide just as the military’s grip loosens at the polls.
Outlook…
Watana muangsook didn’t let the junta’s barricades dim the mood:
“If this were a 100‑metre race, the military started at 80 meters while we started at zero. But if the people say no to the dictatorship, maybe a landslide victory is still possible.”
So, buckle up. Thailand’s political saga is still rolling, and the 2019 election could either confirm the junta’s reign or open the gates for a pop‑pol revolution.
