Trump’s Tease: A 90‑Day “Pause” or a Full-Blown Tariff Throwdown?
In Washington, the former president stirred up a mix of optimism and anxiety over our next 90‑days of the U.S.–China trade spat. He floated a potential extension of the current ceasefire—essentially a chill‑out period—while also eyeing a return to tariffs if Beijing’s deal falls through.
What’s the Deal?
Trump said his trade crew—led by trade‑hawk Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative—will decide whether a real bargain is in the cards. “If it is, we will get it done. But if not… remember, I am a Tariff Man,” he posted on Twitter, teasing the nation with a mix of confidence and a hint of ego.
Investor Mood Hang‑Gave
Markets had lit a firecracker over the weekend when Trump and Xi sealed a truce. But on Tuesday, gloom set in as investors worried the 90‑day window could shrink, or that global growth might take a nosedive.
- Dow Jones: -3%+
- S&P 500: -3.2%
- Nasdaq: -3.8%
Why the 90‑Day Pause?
Trump tweeted that negotiations “already started” and that the 90‑day truce would expire 90 days after his pas‑to‑pas dinner with Xi in Argentina. “Unless extended, they’ll end.” Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin admitted that the market’s main question is whether the deal delivers.
White House’s Take
Trade adviser Peter Navarro told Fox News, “We’ve got 90 days to see progress. Let’s not kill the faith.” He added that the Chinese delegation has been on the road to Panama, hinting the talks could still have a future.
Key Points in the Truce
- China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods immediately.
- China to slash its 40% tariff on U.S. car imports.
- Both sides to hold off on extra tariffs for 90 days starting Dec. 1.
But What’s Missing?
Analysts note that the deal still lacks face‑to‑face details. A JPMorgan note wrote, “It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to.” So, while Trump calls it an “incredible deal,” investors and analysts are left twiddling their thumbs.
The “Litmus Test”
White House’s Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said a cut in China’s tariffs on U.S. cars and agricultural/energy goods would be a strong indicator that talks are moving.
Beyond Tariffs
Washington is keen on addressing intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. The White House’s National Security Adviser John Bolton flagged it as a top concern and suggested a rule to bar imports of Chinese products built on stolen U.S. IP. Ironically, a 2017 bill by Rep. Steve King showed a plan to use duty revenue to pay American victims of Chinese IP theft—an idea that didn’t pass the vote.
Trump’s Bottom Line
“When people or countries raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so,” Trump said, underscoring his long‑standing attack on China’s unfair trade practices. He’s balanced it by placing Lighthizer at the helm of talks, accompanied by Mnuchin, Kudlow, and Navarro—a tight, China‑tinged powerhouse.
In short: the U.S. hopes for a 90‑day “cool‑down,” denoting a half‑hearted path to a truce, but the world’s two largest economies keep clashing on the one big issue—who pays for the implied “raid” on another’s riches.
