Tiangong‑1 – China’s Space Lab Is Turning the Sky Into a Meteor Shower
The Chinese space agency has announced that the almost‑8‑ton Tiangong‑1 will finally be coming home, starting its uncontrolled descent between Saturday and Monday. The European Space Agency says the window is a bit tighter, from midday Saturday to early Sunday afternoon GMT.
Don’t Panic – It’s More Show Than Smash
The China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSEO) posted on WeChat, reassuring everyone that no one really needs to worry. “Spacecraft don’t crash hard like in sci‑fi movies; they turn into a dazzling meteor shower and zip across the starry sky,” they wrote.
Why Beijing Is Proud of Its Space Program
- It’s a big‑picture symbol of China’s rise on the world stage.
- Next up: a manned moon mission, still on the radar.
- Tiangong‑2, launched in 2016, is on track to become a crewed station by 2022.
Experts Say It’s Pretty Safe
Over the past 60 years, the European Space Agency has recorded nearly 6,000 uncontrolled re‑entries of large objects without anyone getting hurt. The CMSEO notes that the chance of someone getting hit by a >200‑gram meteorite is about 1 in 700 million.
What Happens as It Falls?
- At ~100 km altitude, atmospheric drag will peel off solar panels, antennas and other external gear.
- Heat and friction will cause the main structure to burn or explode, likely disintegrating around 80 km.
- Most fragments evaporate in the air; a tiny bit of debris will drift out slowly, mostly landing in the ocean (which covers 70 % of Earth).
Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer, points out that Tiangong‑1 is the 50th most massive uncontrolled re‑entry since 1957. “Nothing bigger has come down without casualties,” he says. “It’s basically a small plane crash, but with a spectacular fireball trail a few hundred kilometers wide.”
So expect to see a series of fireballs dancing in the skies at 60–70 km altitude. Grab your binoculars and popcorn; it’s going to be a show you won’t forget.
