Is Wall Street in a Bull’s or Bear’s Mood?
For weeks the U.S. equity market has been shrugging off its 2022 slump and showing a bit of swagger. Investors are debating whether that downturn is finally behind us or if a new trend is only just starting to take shape.
What’s Driving the Bounce‑Back?
- Corporate earnings came in brighter than many forecasted.
- People believe inflation has stepped away from the worst, and the market is feeling the relief.
On Thursday, August 11, the tech‑heavy Nasdaq slipped about 0.6 % but was already up ~20 % from its June 16 low. The S&P 500 is similarly resilient – a 15 % lift from its June low, signaling that the market’s eyes have been glazing over are now clearing up.
Bespoke Investment Group’s Take
“We could be talking for hours about what exactly a bull and bear market mean,” the analysts at Bespoke put in their note. Their conclusion? The Nasdaq has pivoted out of the bear mode that started in early 2022, they say.
Yet, they admit the index is still ~21 % shy of last November’s peak, meaning there’s still a hefty portion of market value that has gone down.
The Terminology Shuffle
- In plain terms, a bull market is “a market in which securities or commodities keep rising.”
Bear market typically means a decline of at least 20 % from a recent peak – only confirmed in hindsight. - Some folks insist a bull market is when a market climbs 20 % from a previous trough. Using that yardstick, Bespoke argues the Nasdaq is now in a fresh bull phase.
- The SEC notes a bull market is usually a 20 %+ rise over at least two months.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re a pro‑bull, a skeptical bear lover, or somewhere in between, the market’s latest climb is an exciting chapter. The real question is: will the new up‑trend hold, or is a downtick lurking in the shadows? Only time – and perhaps a good headline – will tell.
<img alt="" data-caption="The Nasdaq's steep declines.
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What the S&P 500 Is Really Saying About Bull Markets
When it comes to declaring a bull market, S&P Dow Jones isn’t settling for a simple “up and up” story. Think of it like this: a market drop of 20 % or more followed by a 20 % rebound from that low’s new floor will still leave the index shy of its last high peak. Senior analyst Howard Silverblatt calls that a “bull rally in a bear market.”
Why Back‑wards‑looking Rules Are A Bit Outdated
Relying on past price swings to label the market as bull or bear can feel a lot like judging a book by its cover—especially when the mood and “future motion” of stocks is all about the vibe.
- How fast the market is climbing or plummeting (the velocity)
- What the average stock’s move looks like this time around
- Whether investors see a big swing as a turning point or just a hiccup in an ongoing trend
When Does a New Bull Market Actually Begin?
It’s not enough to crest any recent trough; the real marker is when a brand‑new record high pops up. That peaking moment signals the end of the old bear market and the birth of a fresh bull run, according to S&P’s own wording.
Take the 2008 Crash—For Example
During that painful bear phase, the S&P 500 leapt more than 20 % from a November 2008 low. Hopes swelled that the rout was over. Yet, the index slammed another 28 % down in March 2009, pushing deeper into despair.
Only when the index finally hit an all‑time high in March 2013 did investors feel assured that a new bull market had actually sprung into life—four years after the last big dip.
Silverblatt puts it simply: “We look back and say, ‘So when did the market hit the bottom?’ That’s when the bear ends and the bull starts.”
