Vaccines Pivot: Global Health Leaders Embrace Booster Shots

COVID‑19 Vaccine Makers Get Ready for a New Booster‑Only Plot Twist

After an 18‑month blitz that saw over five billion shots delivered worldwide, the big pharma players are refocusing their batteries. The move? Shrinking the market to mainly boosters, plus a few first‑time shots for kids as regulators finish their due diligence.

Big Names Keep Their Edge

Pfizer (in partnership with BioNTech) and Moderna are betting on staying in the spotlight, even as demand slows.
These two are still the leaders, but their rivalry is about to heat up – it’s basically a “who’s got the best price” showdown.

Newbies on the Horizon

Novavax and CureVac (the German chemist working with GSK) are developing shots aimed squarely at the growing booster segment.
They hope their products become the go‑to for folks who need a refresh.

What About the Less‑Popular Players?

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are expected to take a back seat. Their shots, while clever, have struggled to capture the public’s imagination.

Expert Insight

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Hartaj Singh notes, “It turns into a fiercely competitive game where companies fight over pricing and market share—even for supposedly top‑tier vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna.”

The Uncertainties

Right now, we don’t know how many boosters the globe will actually need. In some countries, second boosters are only recommended for a slice of the population, and no one knows yet if vaccine makers will be rolling out new, tailor‑made shots each fall like the flu industry does.

If they do, that could either reignite demand or make the market even fuzzier. For now, the vaccine world is in late‑night scrimmage, plotting the next move in a space where the stakes are global health and profit margins.

Unvaccinated Adults: The New Unlikely Market For Covid Shots

When Pfizer’s boss Albert Bourla dropped his latest insight in an interview, the headline was almost as striking as the headline itself: Most people who haven’t been inoculated are not looking to get vaccinated anymore. That’s right— two years into the pandemic, the big appetite that used to drive drive‑thru pharmacies is fading away.

Who’s actually in line for the next dose?

“The already vaccinated” are the ones pulling in the numbers, according to Bourla.
Moderna’s execs agree that annual boosters will mainly target folks over 50 and those with health risks or high‑risk jobs, like healthcare workers.
Bosanews says this slice of the global population sits at around 1.7 billion—roughly 21 % of everyone worldwide.

Omicron‑Ready Upgrades

Both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech are no strangers to rapid tweak‑ups thanks to their mRNA tech, and that means new vaccines aimed at bounding the Omicron variant are already in the works.

Market Outlook – U.S. & Western Europe Still Key, But Slower

Even though the United States and much of Western Europe—home to roughly 600 million fully vaccinated people—will keep being major sales hubs, the numbers are expected to drop to a fraction of their peak levels. “What we are seeing is a pivotal shift,” says Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren.

In short: the quest for a new shot is tightening up, and the trickle‑down goes not to the vaccine‑hungry but to the “already‑cured‑and‑protective” crowd.

The Real Numbers Behind “High‑Risk” Vaccine Targeting

A quick look at the fallout*

A study points out that 20%–25% of everyone classified as “high‑risk” is the sweet spot for the pandemic‑peak shots.

That figure drops sharply when you compare it to the 49% in the U.S. and 62% in Europe that have already had at least one booster—about 335 million people in total.

What the Market Forecasts

Pfizer/BioNTech is projected to rake in $17 billion (≈ S$23.7 billion)* in 2023.

Moderna is looking at $10 billion the same year, roughly half the $34 billion* for this year.

Both companies expect sales to take a nosedive afterwards, once the herd‑immunity wave settles.

Bottom Line

Even if a sizeable chunk of the “high‑risk” crowd goes for the shots, the overall uptake is still far below the millions of people already boosted in the Western world. The picture? Vaccines are still a hot ticket, but the growth curve will dip once the initial adrenaline rush fades.

The other players

Johnson & Johnson Bounces Back? Not So Fast

Johnson & Johnson’s COVID‑19 vaccine, pulled back by a nasty blood‑clot side effect (yes, even if it’s rare, it can be deadly), didn’t say whether it’s ready to roll out the booster in the fall. In April the whole pharma giant quietly dropped its 2022 vaccine sales forecast, citing uncertainty—think of it as a “maybe” for 2023.

African Voices: Aspirin vs Aspirin

Aspen Pharmacare, the African distributor that churns out J&J’s shot, is sounding a low‑key warning about weak demand. “There’s a cozy spot for boosters, but it won’t be at the levels we saw before,” CEO Stephen Saad told the media. Picture a room full of people shouting, “Who’s ready for a booster?”—and only a few people actually show up.

AstraZeneca’s Take: Still in the Mix

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca’s Pascal Soriot told the press in late April that their vaccine, the one that originally made a splash in 2020, could still find a home on the pharmacy shelf. “We believe this vaccine still has potential. It’s super easy to administer and distribute,” he said, also noting that the new volume will be lower. “We’re aiming for one booster a year, not a yearly headache for everyone.”

Side‑Note: The Booster Race Continues

Johnson & Johnson: uncertain, pensively dropping sales forecasts.
Aspen Pharmacare: cautiously optimistic, but sales are not booming.
AstraZeneca: keeping its shot in the game, but the demand is expected to calm down.

In short, vaccines are still rolling out—just like a slow, laid‑back chat over coffee, as opposed to a full‑blast rock concert that the public once imagined.

Vaccines Pivot: Global Health Leaders Embrace Booster Shots